[GRADE D — Analytical inference based on v3.0 evidence expansion]
| Name | v1.0 | v3.0 | Change | Key New Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Barrack | 65% | 85% | +20 | CONFIRMED house visit (A1); child photos; Barak-Churkin dinner; contact book; "Musketeers" |
| Steve Bannon | 75% | 75% | — | Retained; now with massive documentary corroboration (18mo relationship, documentary, gifts) |
| Steven Mnuchin | 50% | 55% | +5 | Brunel connection; cabinet vetting intelligence; DOJ social contact |
| Howard Lutnick | 45% | 50% | +5 | Island negotiation docs; May 2019 "Trump coming to Lutnick's house" |
| Stephen Feinberg | 40% | 45% | +5 | POGO investigation; DiIorio whistleblower; ethics filings |
| John Phelan | 25% | 25% | — | No new evidence |
| Dr. Mehmet Oz | 20% | 25% | +5 | Valentine party + post-confirmation revelation timing |
| Alexander Acosta | 15% | 15% | — | Not island candidate; plea deal chain massive but pre-dates transition |
| Ben Black | N/A | 15% | NEW | Newly assessed; Feb 2016 portrait email; father's $170M |
| William Barr | 10% | 10% | — | No new direct evidence; CIA link notable but unresolved |
| Elon Musk | — | N/A | NEW | Not administration; 16+ emails, island party interest; included for completeness |
Aggregate shift: The v3.0 reassessment reflects a fundamental change in methodology — from graph-based inference to documentary evidence. Barrack's upgrade from 65% to 85% is the most significant, reflecting the move from "plausible based on role" to "confirmed direct contact with house visit, child photo request, and dinner scheduling."
WHAT THIS SHOWS AND DOES NOT SHOW: Probability assessments remain analytical inferences, not documentary proof of presence on the island in December 2016. Each individual's assessment reflects documented connections across multiple sources. Alternative explanations exist for each. The upgrade methodology prioritizes primary documentary evidence (A1/A2) over graph-derived inference (D).